Marek Kubista claims that the success of the Copenhagen Climate Conference lies with the inclusion of Brazil, Russia, India and China in the deal.

Obama will have to face serious challenges before an agreement is reached. Most importantly, he will have to restore trust with the EU and secure its cooperation, to stand united against more skeptical countries; the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China). […] The US and the EU will face a challenge in securing cooperative attitudes and will have to make compromises and contributions. For instance, the US and the EU might have to the transfer of technologies to help BRICs adjust. The key is mitigation commitments versus financial help.

I would put a bigger stress on financial motivation than on mitigation commitments. Technology transfer may benefit developing countries, I think there is a limitation to this. India and China are very much advanced in most technologies anyway. Although some very poor countries may be lured into a deal with technology transfers, I think that India and Brazil, but especially the non-democratic China and Russia will aska heavy price for this. Although China would be the bigger prize in the deal, Russia is in a worse position: its economy is almost entirely based on the sale (and consequent) burning of fossil fuels.

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